(WHTM) – A new abc27/Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Republican Mehmet Oz now leading Democrat John Fetterman in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race.
The survey is the first to be fully conducted after the October 25 debate between Oz and Fetterman at the abc27 studio in Harrisburg.
The survey of 1,000 Pennsylvania voters found Oz with 47.6% support to Fetterman’s 45.8%. Libertarian Erik Gerhardt received 1.6% while Green Party candidate Richard Weiss and Keystone Party candidate Daniel Wassmer each received less than 1% combined.
Nearly 4% of voters were still undecided on who they will vote for on November 8.
Oz’s lead is a nearly 4% upswing compared to the September Emerson College poll that showed Fetterman leading 48-44%.
In the latest survey, 53.5% of voters expect Oz to win, a drastic change from the 56% who expected Fetterman to win in the September poll.
Forty-four percent of voters said Oz’s performance in the October 25 debate improved their opinion of the Republican nominee. Nearly 50% of voters said Fetterman’s performance (while recovering from a stroke) worsened their opinion of him.
Ninty-three percent of voters said they knew a little or a lot about the abc27 debate between Fetterman and Oz, their only debate before the general election.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Of those who say they have heard, seen, or read a lot about the debate, Oz leads Fetterman 55% to 41%. Among those who have heard, seen, or read only a little or nothing about the debate, Fetterman leads 56% to 28%.”
With nearly 1 million ballots already cast, 73% of Fetterman supporters said they already voted compared to just 23% of Oz supporters.
Forty-seven percent of voters said they trust Oz more to lower energy prices versus 37% believing they would trust Fetterman more. Fetterman received overwhelming support among minority voters and voters 18-34. Oz led among voters 50 and older by double digits.
Among male voters Oz led by 10% while Fetterman led females by 3%.
President Biden has a 39% approval rating with 56% disapproving of his job performance. The economy is the top issue facing Pennsylvania voters at 51%, followed by threats to democracy at 14% and abortion access at 9%.
The Emerson College Polling survey of Pennsylvania voters was conducted October 28-31, 2022. The sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, party affiliation and region based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample using SMS-to-web, an online panel, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.