(WHTM) – A new Emerson College Polling survey shows Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey leading Republican Dave McCormick by eight points 41% to 33%, however, 18% say they’re undecided on a race that’s still 13 months away.

Eight percent of the Pennsylvania registered voters surveyed said they would like to see someone else in the race.

Casey’s lead is prominent among African Americans with 50% saying they’d support him for a fourth term. He also leads McCormick among female voters 44% to 26%, while McCormick leads among men 41% to 39%.

“An additional group that splits their ticket include voters whose highest level of education is a high school degree or less: these voters break for Trump 53% to 27%, while Casey leads this group 36% to 33% over McCormick,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

The poll also found former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 45% to 36% with 11% saying they would vote for someone else. Eight percent said they were undecided in the presidential race.

Kimball explained the juxtaposition between Biden’s and Casey’s support with two groups of voters: “Biden leads Trump 44% to 39% among voters under 40, however those under 30 within this group break for Trump 45% to 39%. Conversely, Casey leads McCormick 46% to 22% among voters under 40, and leads 42% to 23% with voters under 30.”

A poll released by Quinnipiac University Polling earlier this month showed Casey with a 50% to 44% lead over McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO who finished second to Mehmet Oz in the 2022 Republican primary.

Voters are still waiting on when the 2024 primary election will be with state lawmakers fighting over two April dates. At this point, the date may not matter as Casey and McCormick are the only major candidates who have declared for their respective parties.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Pennsylvania poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 430 Pennsylvania voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, party, race, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=468 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=430. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Pennsylvania voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (PA SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of landlines via Interactive Voice Response (IVR) and emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer. 

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling, and questions included in this release are all sponsored by Emerson College. All questions asked in this survey with exact wording, along with full results and cross tabulations can be found here.